Optimism returns as farmers stand by to benefit from favourable export and climatic conditions, though stock shortages could impact the opportunity.    

As transactions of livestock go into winter mode, farmers can look forward to the coming spring and summer with some confidence.

Global beef cattle herds, particularly in the United States, are at long term lows, driving strong demand and elevated pricing for imported lean beef, including from New Zealand. As a result, the market remains at or close to record levels by value. However, despite solid yardings continuing in many districts for longer into the winter than anticipated, sales volumes have now gone into a normal seasonal lull.

Data from Statistics NZ indicates red meat sector export returns for the 2024/25 season rose 34 per cent on the previous year, while domestic farmgate prices are reported to have climbed to as much as 50 per cent above five-year averages.

In late July Federated Farmers’ Farm Confidence survey reported a dramatic improvement in optimism on the farm, with 65 per cent of farmers now expecting profitability, a remarkable contrast to the record low levels of confidence in the same survey 12 months ago. Interest rate reductions have also helped raise the mood on-farm. Despite uncertainty around trade barriers, mainly United States tariffs on beef and potential tension in trade with China, these market conditions are set to prevail over the coming months.

Across the regions, Northland has been wet. Elsewhere, in late July a cold spell that included several consecutive days of frost hit much of the North Island, which if continued might delay the start of spring. Whenever the warmer weather does arrive, conditions suggest plenty of grass will grow, setting up all the right conditions for a profitable season, though as the region remains damp, growth of pasture in Northland may be inhibited.

While many are taking the opportunity for a winter break, particularly in the dairy sector, in some North Island districts, lambs are already on the ground.

Buoyancy in both red meat and dairy is encouraging plenty of farmers, and others, to take a positive approach.

Meanwhile, this year’s initial four-day old calf sales achieved price records, with special interest in well-bred, well-marked Friesian bulls, beef calves and Friesian beef crosses. Plenty of people are entering the market and calves are selling well. With more calves expected to be brought through by more rearers this year, a supply-demand imbalance of will benefit those with four-day old calves to sell. Looking ahead, anyone rearing calves may find the best way to maximise advantage is by establishing a forward contract early, seeking out and making a deal with those aiming to take on calves in the spring or summer, with the assistance of a livestock representative.

Likewise, in some regions, particularly where farms have converted to forestry in the past few years, a shortage of stock may frustrate opportunities for farmers to capitalise on the propitious conditions taking shape for the coming season. In these circumstances, planning ahead, including regular contact with your livestock representative, is the best way to overcome such hurdles, and therefore maximise what looks set to be a good year. 
 

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